Against the Odds: Saudi Stocks Surge into Bull Market Territory Despite Oil Price Declines Fueled by Optimism and Investor Confidence
Anticipated lower interest rates are poised to propel Saudi stocks into a bull market, outweighing the impact of declining oil prices, which remain a key revenue source for the country. On Sunday, the Tadawul All Share Index climbed up to 0.4%, marking a total gain of just over 20% since the lows in March. The fourth-quarter surge is largely attributed to growing optimism surrounding the possibility of the Federal Reserve implementing interest rate cuts in 2024. Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, typically align their monetary policies with the decisions of the US Federal Reserve to safeguard their currency pegs to the dollar. A survey by Saudi brokerage SNB Capital revealed a positive shift in investor sentiment in the fourth quarter, with bearish views reaching a record low. This contrasts with early October when the index erased its 2023 gains due to the Israel-Hamas conflict. Survey participants continue to focus on oil prices, interest rates, and inflation as the primary market drivers. Despite a fourth-quarter decline in crude prices, attributed to increased production from the US and other sources countering OPEC+ output cuts, Saudi Aramco, dropping nearly 6%, remains the primary contributor to Tadawul's gains for the year. Notably, Al Rajhi Bank and utility firm ACWA Power Co. also emerged as top gainers during this period.