Sunak's Summer Election Brings Hope to Britain's Financial Sector
As the UK gears up for a summer election, executives in the City of London are hopeful that a new government might address their concerns and end years of political instability. The upcoming vote on July 4, which is likely to usher in the first Labour Prime Minister in over 14 years, is being viewed with cautious optimism by business leaders in London’s financial community. Despite their past conflicts with the Conservative Party, particularly under former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, relations have improved recently. However, Brexit, political turbulence, and economic uncertainty have significantly impacted the finance sector, which contributes about 12% of all UK tax receipts. The lingering effects of the disastrous 'mini-budget' in September 2022 under Liz Truss, which caused government bond yields to spike, remain fresh in the minds of many. The UK continues to be a leading global destination for financial investment, but foreign investment in its financial and professional services halved last year, and the London stock market struggles to attract new listings. Matthew Ponsonby, UK head of global banking for BNP Paribas, emphasized the need for proactive measures to maintain the UK’s status as a world-leading capital market. Financial industry leaders are hopeful that a new government will implement reforms to enhance the City’s competitiveness and attract more global interest. They also aim to unlock pension funds for long-term investments. Ponsonby stressed the importance of continued constructive reform, citing the longstanding issue of stamp duty on UK equity trades. Labour Party leader Keir Starmer, who leads in opinion polls, has shown a willingness to engage with the finance industry. Describing the City as Britain's crown jewels, Labour has maintained regular dialogue with banks and investors on reforms aimed at boosting the sector's post-Brexit competitiveness. Although Labour’s blueprint for the City includes some of the Conservative government's reforms, much could change as the campaign progresses. A Labour government would inherit the same financial constraints as the current administration and would need private investors to help fund significant investments in housing and energy transition. Amanda Blanc, CEO of Aviva, emphasized the importance of recognizing the financial services sector's critical role in the economy and expressed a desire for greater respect for the industry. Executives are also pushing for reforms to allow British institutional investors to invest more in domestic infrastructure and enterprise. Aviva has advocated for changes to the EU's Solvency II rules, which have limited UK insurers' investments in infrastructure projects. Aviva has already invested £9.5 billion in UK infrastructure over the past four years, and Blanc sees this as just the beginning. Nicholas Lyons, chair of British insurer Phoenix and a former Lord Mayor of the City of London, also highlighted the importance of encouraging pension sector investments in infrastructure. He stressed the need for financial services companies to take on risk as part of their core function. British banks and their investors are generally unconcerned about a potential change in government. Early speculation about windfall taxes has not gained traction, and a new finance minister will inherit plans to raise billions from selling taxpayer-owned shares in NatWest. Chris Weston, head of research at financial services group Pepperstone, noted that early commentary from Labour suggests any changes will be manageable, and equity investors seem relatively unconcerned about a change in government. As the election approaches, the financial sector remains hopeful that a new government will bring stability and a focus on reforms to ensure the City of London continues to thrive.